GULF WEEKLY: Most cut rates, Saudi deficit widens but GDP accelerates, Saudi AI and renewables deals signed, UAE budget expands

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 31 Oct 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil eased to $64 as the market waits on OPEC+ and signs of the impact of Russia sanctions.
* Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s rate cut, bar Kuwait, which has the lowest rate and a basket peg.
* The GCC-UK FTA is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks.
* The Saudi deficit widened to -7.4% of GDP in Q3 as revenue was flat but spending rose.
* Saudi Q3 GDP growth was the most in over two years at 5.0%, led by the oil production hike.
* FII drew Donald Trump Jr and China’s VP to Riyadh, among other national and corporate leaders.
* Humain signed a $3bn AI data center investment deal with Blackstone’s AirTrunk subsidiary.
* SPPC awarded 4.5GW in renewables, while ACWA Power secured $10bn in project finance.
* Barclays is re-entering Saudi Arabia, and Goldman Sachs is tripling its Riyadh office.
* The UAE’s federal budget for 2026 is 29% larger y/y, mainly due to investment allocations.
* S&P sees a 1.8% of GDP surplus for Dubai in 2025-28, with debt stabilizing at 29% of GDP.
* Qatar’s current account surplus was 14% of GDP in Q2; inward FDI and portfolio flows turned negative.
* Qatar is preparing to issue a dollar sukuk soon, which would be the first since 2012.
* QatarEnergy signed its first LNG sales deal of 2025, for 1m t/y over 17 years, with India’s GSPC.
* Trump stopped in Doha on route to Asia, meeting with the Emir and the Prime Minister.
* Hafeet Rail signed a preliminary agreement for a Sohar-Abu Dhabi freight rail service.
* Gaza ceasefire violations included Israeli strikes killing 104 on Tuesday, after a soldier was shot.
* Databank updates: Saudi and UAE fiscal, Saudi GDP, Qatar BoP, Bahrain inflation, Dubai forecasts.

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