GULF WEEKLY: Oil at a 5-year low, Dubai's strong H1 fiscal surplus, Gaza ceasefire holds

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 17 Oct 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil had its worst week since 2020, touching $60 amidst oversupply and demand concerns.
* OPEC still sees a balanced market in 2026, whereas the IEA forecasts nearly 4m b/d of oversupply.
* The IMF revised up growth forecasts, due to OPEC+ hikes, and sees GCC debt rising $73bn/year.
* A major Mecca development, King Salman Gate, will add praying space for 900k more pilgrims.
* JP Morgan is the latest US bank to secure a regional HQ license in Riyadh.
* Saudi Arabia and Qatar qualified for the 2026 World Cup; the UAE could still do so if it beats Iraq.
* Dubai’s fiscal surplus was an impressive 6.9% of GDP in H1.
* The UAE's current account surplus rose to 14.5% of GDP in 2024, the most since 2013, and FDI was a record 8%.
* Sharjah is close to securing a $400m-equivalent yuan loan from Asian banks.
* G42 expects to complete in 2026 the first 200MW in its unit of the Stargate UAE data campus.
* MGX and KIA are participating in a GIP-led $40bn deal to buy the US’s Aligned Data Centers.
* Dubai Airport has increased flights by 3% and on-time performance to 95% using AI tools.
* QIA is investing $0.5bn in renewables with Brookfield and in BASF’s paint division with Carlyle.
* In the latest US-Qatar defense cooperation, an F-15 training facility is being established in Idaho.
* Kuwait discovered the third offshore gas field within barely a year.
* Kuwait’s Emir visited Oman, with a delegation including the KIA and KPC leadership.
* The Gaza prisoner exchange took place on Monday, and the ceasefire is largely holding.
* Databank updates: IMF forecasts, Dubai fiscal, UAE BoP, Saudi & Dubai inflation, OPEC oil.

Now read on...

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