GULF WEEKLY: Oil eases on deal hopes, rating agencies affirm four states, Qatar Q1 deficit at 5% of GDP
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Oil fell to $91 as hopes grew for an Iran deal; Trump said a “final determination” will happen today.
* This followed a week when Iranian leaders held talks in Qatar, but the US and Iran exchanged fire.
* Lebanon could be a barrier to a deal, with Israel’s intensified bombing and crossing of the Litani River.
* The Saudi trade surplus in March was the highest since 2022 as oil rose 36%, but imports fell -28%.
* There were affirmations of Saudi Arabia (Moody’s), UAE (Fitch), Qatar (Moody’s & S&P) and Bahrain (S&P).
* Aramco will sell its 50% stake in a Malaysian petchem plant in which it had invested about $7bn.
* Saudi Arabia hosted 1.5m foreign pilgrims for the Hajj, including Iranians.
* Dubai’s inflation surged to 4.8% in April, led by transport, food and housing.
* Qatar’s deficit rose to 5% of GDP in Q1 as hydrocarbon revenue fell by -27% q/q, but capex was cut.
* Qatar’s manufacturing output was fairly resilient in March, only down by -10%, mainly due to refining.
* QatarEnergy’s contractors, Chiyoda and Technip, have restarted work on North Field East LNG.
* Moody’s forecasts a -21% contraction in Kuwait’s GDP, but S&P only expects -2%.
* In the latest SWF boon from AI stocks, OIA realized a 10x return on the US firm Crusoe.
* Bahrain’s inflation remained subdued in April at 1.4%, although recreation surged 23% m/m.
* S&P sees Bahrain’s debt rising by $21bn in 2026-29 and interest reaching 43% of revenue.
* Mumtalakat reported a record $1.6bn profit, driven by Alba and McLaren Racing.
* Israel announced plans to expand its control in Gaza to 70%, from 53% in the October ceasefire.
* Databank updates: Qatar fiscal, Bahrain and Dubai inflation, forecasts (Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain).
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