GULF WEEKLY: Oil falls, Saudi issues $7bn, March data drips out and forecasts are bleak

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 17 Apr 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include:

* Despite OPEC+ finalizing its cuts, Brent oil fell back to $28 amidst a 29m b/d demand shock.
* The World Bank and IMF released forecasts for the GCC (and beyond).
* Coronavirus infections surged by 179% w/w in Bahrain and accelerated in Oman and Saudi, but slowed elsewhere.
* Saudi issued $7bn, including the region’s first 40-year bond, at surprisingly narrow spreads.
* Ratings reports were issued by Moody’s for Saudi, Qatar & Bahrain, and by Fitch for Saudi and Kuwait.
* Abu Dhabi’s inflation showed the most extreme impact of the crisis, with more modest deflationary/inflationary moves by sector in Dubai and Qatar.
* Bahrain’s March POS data showed a sharp decline in restaurant sales.
* Qatar drilled the first well for the North Field expansion.
* Oman’s spending cuts were doubled to 10% and it restructured PDO.

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