GULF WEEKLY: Oman and Sharjah budgets, Kuwait GDP after a 2-year hiatus, Kuwait PM nominated, Saudi cuts diesel subsidies
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. This report covers the two-week period from December 23, 2023. Headlines:
* Brent crude recovers to $79 on worries about Libya protests and Gaza-related tensions.
* As the Gaza war continued, Israel and the US assassinated militants in Lebanon and Iraq.
* A significant GCC-Korea FTA was signed, and the UAE signed CEPAs with Congo and Mauritius.
* The Saudi current surplus narrowed to 1.9% of GDP in Q3 on higher imports and weaker services.
* Saudi Arabia cut corporate fuel subsidies but extended the Citizen Account payments for a year.
* Saudi Arabia and the UAE have formally agreed to join BRICS.
* The UAE fiscal surplus narrowed to 3% of GDP in Q3 and averaged 4.4% in Jan-Sep 2023.
* Sharjah’s budget is worryingly expansionary, with spending up 27% but revenue only up 5%.
* Abu Dhabi’s strong non-oil GDP growth of 7.7% y/y in Q3 continued to lead GDP.
* The US extended its agreement on Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base for a decade.
* Qatar removed espionage death sentences from 8 Indians and is near an LNG deal with Petronet.
* Kuwait published GDP from 2021 to Q2-23. Post-Covid recovery in most sectors lags GCC peers.
* Kuwait’s Amir nominated economist Mohamad Sabeh al-Salem to be prime minister.
* Oman’s official estimated fiscal surplus in 2023 is 2.3% of GDP, in line with the outturn Oct YTD.
* Oman’s 2024 budget has a breakeven oil price of about $66, despite a large increase in subsidies.
* Bahrain’s GDP growth was 2.5% in Q3, the most in the GCC, partly due to government services.
* Bahrain’s lower chamber of parliament voted for a controversial expat remittance tax.
* Databank updates: Oman & Sharjah budgets, UAE Q3 fiscal; GDP for Abu Dhabi, Bahrain and Kuwait; Saudi BoP etc.
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