GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, TSMC moots UAE gigafab, Qatar and Oman fiscal outturns

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 06 Jun 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* OPEC+ announced another 0.4m b/d production hike for July, but Brent rose to $66 on US-China talks.
* Leaks of the US proposal to Iran suggested an enrichment compromise, contradicted by Trump.
* Trump’s metal tariffs will impact the GCC. The UAE provides 8% of US steel & aluminum.
* The Hajj welcomed 1.6m pilgrims, and the heat stress crisis from last year was not repeated.
* Orders for the Specialist Medical Co IPO in KSA were weaker than in recent listings.
* The UAE’s PMI dipped to a more than three-year low of 53, although this remains expansionary.
* Taiwan's TSMC is considering building a gigafab in the UAE, which could cost around $100bn.
* ADGM saw solid 33% y/y growth in AUM in Q1, although this was down from 245% in 2024.
* Qatar recorded a -0.3% of GDP deficit in Q1, its first since 2021, which is not a concern.
* Kuwait’s BoP showed a record $27bn in foreign debt investments in Q4, including $8bn in the US.
* KIA is joining the AI Infrastructure Partnership with the UAE’s MGX, BlackRock and others.
* Oman’s final 2024 fiscal accounts were close to preliminary estimates, with a 1.3% of GDP surplus.
* India’s trade minister said he hopes the India-Oman CEPA will be signed soon.
* Bahrain’s FX reserves dipped to $2.4bn, the lowest since 2020, but were restocked by debt in May.
* Bahrain was elected to the UN Security Council.
* In Syria, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will pay salaries, and Gulf telcos are competing for a fiber optic network contract.
* The US vetoed a UN ceasefire in Gaza, and mass shootings led to the suspension of aid deliveries.
* Databank updates: Qatar and Oman fiscal; Kuwait BoP; Saudi & Oman forecasts; OPEC+ quotas…

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