GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ compromise pending, Sultan visits Saudi, Fitch stabilizes Saudi outlook

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 16 Jul 2021 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The UAE is willing to support an OPEC+ extension to end-2022 in return for a 0.5m b/d hike in its baseline.
* JCPOA talks appear to be stalled until at least mid-August.
* Coronavirus rates are improving in Kuwait and Oman, the worst affected Gulf states.
* Fitch improved Saudi’s outlook to stable due to higher oil prices and fiscal consolidation.
* The controversial new Saudi rules of origin for customs-free entry for Gulf products are creating border delays, and the workforce requirements are almost impossible for UAE companies to meet.
* Saudi Arabia capped local fuel prices for the first time since subsidy reform in 2016.
* Although Dubai’s PMI dipped to 51, business confidence is rising ahead of Expo.
* Mubadala is in talks to sell GlobalFoundries to Intel for around $30bn.
* Qatar signed a 2m t/yr LNG supply agreement in Korea, its 6th deal in Asia this year.
* Qatar received ICAO approval to take control of civil aviation in its airspace from Bahrain.
* Oman’s Sultan visited MBS and King Salman in Neom, cementing warming relations with Saudi Arabia.
* Moody’s revised down its forecast of Oman’s deficit to -3.6% of GDP.
* Commercial Bank of Qatar failed in its bid to take majority ownership of National Bank of Oman.
* Sa’ad Hariri quit as prime minister-designate after failing to form a Lebanese government.
* Jordan convicted a prominent Saudi-linked official of sedition in support of Prince Hamzah.

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