GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ hikes by less than expected, US approves AI chips exports, Trump’s Gaza ceasefire begins

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 10 Oct 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* OPEC+ hiked production for November by 137k b/d, less than had been expected by the market.
* There was a record $80bn in sukuk issuance in Q3, much of it from the GCC.
* Saudi Arabia’s PMI rebounded in September, and its manufacturing index was strong in August.
* PIF sold a €1.65bn green bond, and the sovereign is considering raising a $10bn loan.
* The founder of Uber was naturalized as a Saudi, and the founder of Revolut relocated to the UAE.
* Abu Dhabi's fiscal surplus was a strong 6.7% of GDP in 2024 but still lagged Dubai’s 8.5%.
* Preliminary data on the UAE’s current account showed a 10%-of-GDP surplus in 2023.
* The US has finally approved billions of dollars in AI chip exports to the UAE.
* Dubai is permitting thousands of freezone companies to operate onshore.
* Mubadala sold a $750m bond, and ADQ is raising a $4bn syndicated loan.
* PMIs dipped lower in Qatar (to 51.5) and Kuwait (to 52.2, the weakest since February).
* Goldman Sachs is the latest US financial firm to open an office in Kuwait.
* Oman issued a $1bn 7-year sukuk at just +60bp.
* Oman approved new special economic zones near the UAE and Saudi borders.
* Bahrain’s oil & gas GDP contracted in Q2, but non-oil growth accelerated to 3.5%.
* Israel and Hamas approved Trump’s Gaza peace plan; the ceasefire began today.
* Databank updates: WB forecasts; Abu Dhabi & Dubai fiscal; Bahrain GDP; UAE BoP; OPEC+ quotas etc.

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