GULF WEEKLY: Peace hopes rise as Iran reopens Hormuz after Lebanon ceasefire, PIF announces 5-year strategy, Kuwait & Abu Dhabi make $4.5bn in private placements
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Iran’s foreign minister declared Hormuz reopen in response to the ceasefire in Lebanon.
* Brent crude has dropped below $90 for the first time in over five weeks.
* OPEC data for March showed production declines as high as -61% m/m for Iraq and -53% Kuwait.
* The IMF’s WEO “reference case” shows GDP contractions in 2026 for Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.
* The main fiscal revisions in the IMF forecasts are a deficit in Qatar and a much larger surplus in Oman.
* There was another $4.5bn in private bond placements this week from Kuwait and Abu Dhabi.
* Saudi Arabia is providing $3bn in support to Pakistan to make up for maturing UAE deposits.
* PIF unveiled its 2026-30 strategy, which reorganizes its Vision 2030 projects into six ecosystems.
* PIF added $550m in funding for Lucid but may pull the plug on LIV Golf after spending $5bn.
* The UAE is resuming in-person schooling next week, in a sign of confidence in the ceasefire.
* L’imad is investing $2.3bn in a Jordanian fertilizers railway project.
* Qatar’s current account surplus narrowed sharply to a five-year low of 9% of GDP in Q4.
* Kuwait’s full budget was published; capex and independent agencies are driving spending growth.
* Oman’s inflation jumped to a four-year high of 3.6% in March as the war drove up transport to 9.4%.
* Bahrain’s non-oil GDP growth surged to a three-year high of 7.4% in Q4, with strength in most sectors.
* However, Bahrain’s oil was weak even before the war, with new data putting it at just a third of capacity in January.
* Bahrain’s central bank announced a range of banking resiliency measures, including liquidity support.
* Databank updates: Kuwait budget, Bahrain GDP, Qatar BoP, Oman inflation, OPEC oil, IMF forecasts.
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