GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Abu Dhabi GDP strong in Q1, Saudi current account returns to surplus, Oman Air joins oneworld

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 04 Jul 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil recovered to around $69, despite expectations of another OPEC+ hike.
* The Iran ceasefire held, but Trump and Khamenei continued a war of words.
* Saudi Arabia’s current account returned to surplus, but FDI dipped slightly.
* Saudi bank credit growth slowed for the first time in over a year, to 16.3%.
* The UAE fiscal surplus was 6.4% of GDP in 2024. Spending rose 5.5%.
* Dubai’s PMI dropped to a 4-year low as the war hurt travel and tourism.
* Abu Dhabi’s non-oil GDP was strong at 6.1% in Q1. Oil unexpectedly fell q/q.
* Moody’s sees Sharjah’s deficit peaking this year at -6.4% of GDP.
* S&P revised down its assessment of UAE banking credit risk.
* Qatar’s non-oil GDP grew by 5.3% in Q1, led by trade. Manufacturing rebounded.
* Qatar’s current surplus rose to 15.6% of GDP, and FDI was the highest in over a decade.
* Qatar sold $1.4bn in local bonds and sukuk with 2-6 year tenors.
* Kuwait issued legislation to boost revenue from public real estate.
* Oman Air joined oneworld, which could boost its revenue and tourist arrivals.
* Bahrain’s FX reserves nearly doubled in May, following its Eurobond issuance.
* The US is pushing a new Gaza ceasefire proposal as well as Saudi-Israel normalization.
* Databank updates: Fiscal (UAE, Sharjah); GDP (UAE, Qatar, Abu Dhabi); BoP (Saudi, Qatar); Forecasts (Sharjah)…

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