GULF WEEKLY: Qatar steps in to mediate, UK-GCC FTA signed, Oman records small Q1 deficit
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Trump paused assault plans as Qatar and other Gulf states stepped in to mediate with Iran.
* This came after Iran formally launched its “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to administer transits.
* A drone launched from Iraq caused a fire near the UAE’s nuclear plant.
* The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was nominally extended for 45 days, although bombing continues.
* The UK-GCC FTA was finally signed, and Austria’s economy minister urged the EU to do a deal.
* Fitch put Arab multilateral APICORP on a negative outlook because of the war.
* Saudi developer Dar Al Arkan issued the first corporate sukuk in the GCC since the start of the war.
* The Line is reportedly suspended until 2030, and a rail link to Oxagon was canceled.
* Riyadh Air announced its first route (to London), and PIF may create a consolidated logistics group.
* The UAE’s West-East Pipeline expansion is already about 50% complete and will open in 2027.
* Qatar’s inflation eased in April as cheaper air tickets offset a surge in food prices to 10% y/y.
* Deposits rose in Qatar in April, led by the public sector, but also private and non-resident accounts.
* Oman’s deficit was a modest -0.2% of GDP in Q1 as spending rose by 9% while oil revenue dipped.
* Omani April crude output may have been significantly higher than OPEC data, perhaps 900k b/d.
* Oman-UAE trade is picking up, including an 8x increase in April for the Green Corridor with Dubai.
* Oman Investment Authority achieved a record $7.5bn in profit and a 14.6% rate of return.
* Databank updates: Oman fiscal, Qatar and Kuwait inflation, Oman monthly data.
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