GULF WEEKLY: Rates hiked, MBS mediates Russia prisoner release, UAE and Oman GDP

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 23 Sep 2022 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Gulf states hiked interest rates by 75bp, bar Kuwait, which only raised by 25bp.
* Oil slipped to the lowest since January despite a record shortfall in OPEC+ production.
* There was no progress towards an Iran nuclear deal at the UN, and focus shifted to its protests.
* S&P doubled its forecast for the Saudi fiscal surplus to 6.3% but sees deficits returning from 2024.
* MBS mediated the release of Western prisoners held in Russia and might seek a broader role.
* The UAE released a large trove of GDP data including Q1-22 when non-oil growth was 8.8% y/y.
* Adnoc may be targeting a 25% increase in its oil capacity to 5m b/d as soon as 2025.
* Adnoc is in talks to buy part or all of commodities trader Gunvor Group.
* The Salik IPO was 50-times oversubscribed for the $1bn of equity on offer.
* German utilities are reportedly nearing LNG deals with Qatar and UAE.
* Qatar’s Emir addressed the UN, as did Kuwaiti and Bahraini officials.
* Oman’s non-oil GDP grew by a modest 3.6% y/y in Q2, constrained by a drop in construction.
* Oman’s inflation eased to 2.4% but Bahrain’s rose to 4.0% in August.
* Lebanon received a nudge for reform from an IMF mission but closed banks due to threats.
* Tunisia expects to reach a staff-level deal with the IMF after limiting public wage increases.
* Databank update: UAE and Oman GDP, Bahrain and Oman inflation, Oman monthly series.

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