GULF WEEKLY: S&P upgrades Oman, Yemen ceasefire begins, Kuwaiti government resigns, Abu Dhabi’s non-oil recovery lags peers
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Oil eased back to a still strong $100 after the IEA announced a strategic reserve release.
* A two-month ceasefire began in Yemen, and the president delegated powers to a new presidential council.
* Gulf states all abstained on the UN motion that suspended Russia from the Human Rights Council.
* The PMIs rose strongly in Qatar and Saudi Arabia and was flat but solid in the UAE.
* Several more Saudi IPOs are planned, including Arabian Drilling.
* Turkey transferred the Khashoggi trial to Saudi Arabia, bad for justice but good for bilateral relations.
* The UAE achieved a consolidated fiscal surplus of 4.6% of GDP in 2021, the most since 2008.
* Abu Dhabi’s non-oil GDP in 2021 was still -7.8% below 2019, far weaker than Gulf peers.
* Dewa will raise $6.1bn in its 37-times oversubscribed IPO.
* Qatar recorded new cases of MERS, a rare coronavirus transmitted from camels.
* Kuwait’s government resigned, after just three months, to avoid losing a non-cooperation vote in parliament.
* Still, S&P expects Kuwait to achieve a 3.2% of GDP central surplus, its first since 2014/15.
* S&P upgraded Oman to BB- and expects a fiscal surplus of 5.7% of GDP this year.
* Oman successfully raised a $4bn refinancing loan.
* Bahrain achieved a current account surplus of 6.7% of GDP in 2021, its first since 2014.
* Lebanon reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF on a $3bn facility and restored relations with Gulf states.
* GCC Databank updates: Abu Dhabi GDP, UAE fiscal, Bahrain BoP, S&P Oman+Kuwait forecasts, PMIs
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