GULF WEEKLY: Saudi and UAE raise debt, Bahrain’s H1 deficit at -4.7% of GDP, Oman’s non-oil GDP flat in Q2, Fox interviews MBS
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* The US-Iran prisoner swap took place in Qatar but there was no nuclear file breakthrough yet.
* Saudi Arabia is raising a $11bn 10-year loan, coordinated by ICBC, at +100bp.
* S&P affirmed Saudi Arabia and forecasts a small deficit this year but then surpluses in 2024-26.
* MBS gave an interview to Fox News that included issues such as US relations and repressive laws.
* Israel is reportedly willing to support US-run uranium enrichment in KSA in a normalization deal.
* Talks with Houthi rebels in Riyadh were positive, and there was a US-KSA-UAE meeting on Yemen.
* The UAE’s revised 2022 consolidated fiscal surplus was 10% of GDP, with spending up 6%.
* The UAE issued a $1.5bn 10-year bond at +60bp.
* The IMF’s Kuwait Article IV proposed a consolidation scenario and a medium-term fiscal framework.
* Fitch anticipates a Kuwait debt law next year and then much greater issuance than the IMF does.
* The Kuwaiti and Iraqi prime ministers met at the UN to discuss maritime border concerns.
* Oman’s non-oil growth slowed to 0.1% in Q2 due to weak finance, manufacturing and construction.
* Oman’s gas volumes rose by 5% m/m to a new record of 5.6 bcf/day.
* QIA and PIF will be anchor investors in the $0.8bn IPO of Oman’s OQ Gas Networks.
* Bahrain’s deficit hit about -4.5% of GDP in H1 as spending rose 9% but revenue fell -15%.
* An IMF mission to Lebanon called out inaction on reform and complacency from the uptick in tourism.
* Databank updates: Oman GDP, UAE fiscal, Saudi & Kuwait forecasts, and various monthly series.
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