GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, PMIs rise, UAE Q3 surplus, Bahrain’s CDS spreads spike

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 05 Dec 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* OPEC+’s capacity audit will mainly be done by US firm D&M, bar sanctioned countries.
* The budgeted Saudi spending cuts are mainly in capex and use of goods and services.
* The finance minister reaffirmed an openness to cancelling underperforming projects.
* PMIs rose in the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar; Saudi dipped, but remained by far the highest
* A Saudi minerals exploration round was launched for three belts totaling 13,000 km².
* S&P assigned an A-1 short-term credit rating to PIF, supporting issuance of new tenors.
* PIF is putting up $34bn in cash and equity in the EA buyout and will get a 93% stake.
* The UAE 9M fiscal surplus was 4.0% of GDP, despite a 13% rise in spending.
* IHC committed $715m to support SME lending.
* QIA sold a third of its stake in Britain’s Sainsbury’s, after holding for nearly two decades.
* Kuwait seconded National Assembly staff elsewhere, implying no imminent reopening.
* Bahraini CDS spreads spiked by 24bp, touching a five-month high, after the downgrade.
* Bahrain hosted the GCC Supreme Council as well as Italy’s prime minister.
* Databank updates: UAE and Saudi fiscal, Qatar and Saudi forecasts, Bahrain & Kuwait inflation…

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