GULF WEEKLY: Saudi GDP & budget, Dubai recovery signs, new Kuwaiti cabinet

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 18 Dec 2020 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include:

* 2021 oil demand was revised down further, only making up about 60% of the 2020 decline.
* Iranian statements were supportive of a deal with Biden but the execution of a journalist has strained relations with Europe, whose mediation will be needed on compliance sequencing.
* The Saudi budget sees a deficit of -5% of GDP as tax revenue rises 31% and spending is cut -7%.
* Saudi GDP contracted by -4.6% y/y in Q3. The non-oil sector rebounded 5.7% q/q.
* British MPs criticized the detention of Saudi royals.
* Dubai’s property market and tourism sector showed some encouraging signs, although its PMI weakened.
* There were more positive signs of progress on the Gulf rift as Kuwait confirmed the GCC summit will be in Riyadh and Trump broached the issue in a call with the Saudi King.
* However, Qatar beat Saudi Arabia in the contest to host the 2030 Asian Games.
* Loyalist Marzouq al-Ghanim was re-elected as Kuwaiti speaker, despite most MPs pledging to oppose him.
* Kuwait’s cabinet includes new finance, oil, commerce, defense and interior ministers.
* Oman is consolidating its many state pension funds to improve management.
* Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain all began their Covid vaccination programs.

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