GULF WEEKLY: Saudi pre-budget, Bahrain & Dubai GDP, Bahrain 10% VAT, Kuwait national dialogue
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* OPEC expects oil demand to keep rising, although it cut its 2045 forecast by -1m b/d to 108m.
* LNG hit a record price, and Brent touched $80 for the first time in three years.
* The Saudi pre-budget statement sees a deficit of -2.7% of GDP this year and -1.6% in 2022.
* Saudi local sukuk will comprise 2.75% of the FTSE Russell EMGBI from April.
* Apicorp issued a debut $750m green bond, and more are pending from PIF, AWCA Power, Etihad and the Saudi sovereign, among others.
* The first round of Saudi-Iranian talks since Raisi became president were mediated by Iraq.
* Dubai’s GDP declined by -10.8% in 2020, the worst in the Gulf, easing to -3.7% in Q1 2021.
* The UAE’s GMTN program received credit ratings, suggesting issuance may be pending.
* The delayed Expo 2020 opened today in Dubai at a moment when its property market has begun booming again.
* The UAE appointed a new finance minister and its first minister of climate change.
* Qatar Airways saw a -$4.1bn loss and received $3bn in state aid, but performed better than Emirates.
* Kuwait’s Amir called for a national dialogue, which we expect will finally result in a debt law.
* Oman launched a long-term residency program to entice investors.
* Bahrain’s non-oil GDP rebounded by 7.8% y/y in Q2 but was still -5.4% smaller than in Q2 2019.
* Bahrain announced plans to double the VAT to 10%, possibly as soon as January, and revised its fiscal balance deadline from 2022 to 2024.
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