GULF WEEKLY: Trump mulls entering war, UAE FDI remains strong, S&P rates UAE, Oman’s GDP picks up in Q1

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 20 Jun 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Israel has air superiority, and Iran’s medium-range missiles are nearly exhausted.
* Trump is considering joining the war to bomb the hardened Fordow nuclear site.
* The direct impact on the GCC and hydrocarbons remains limited, but would rise if the US joined.
* Gulf leaders spoke with Iran’s president and Trump. Oman drafted a new nuclear proposal.
* There were signs of diplomatic progress, including in an Iran-Europe meeting today.
* Brent has traded around $76, briefly rising as high as $79. Dubai crude is at a $3 discount.
* Gulf states rose in the World Competitiveness index, including the UAE to 5th and Qatar to 9th.
* FDI into the GCC rose by 10%; the UAE ranked 10th globally with the 2nd most greenfield projects.
* Saudi Arabia ordered up to 127 Airbus jets. Separately, Flynas lost ground after its IPO.
* The UAE’s fiscal surplus narrowed to 2.6% of GDP in Q1 as spending rose 11%.
* UAE non-oil GDP growth was 5.0% in 2024, led by transport, construction and finance.
* S&P assigned a rating to the UAE for the first time, matching Abu Dhabi’s AA level.
* Adnoc’s XRG unit is leading a $19bn takeover bid for Australian LNG firm Santos.
* Qatar is considering a $3.5bn tourism investment on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast.
* Oman’s GDP growth picked up to 2.4% in Q1, led by construction and finance.
* The devastation in Gaza continued, with hundreds more killed, many of them waiting for food.
* Databank updates: UAE fiscal; Oman and UAE GDP; UAE forecasts; FDI; Inflation for most.

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