GULF WEEKLY: UAE-Israel normalization, Aramco dividend, Oman loan, Bahrain downgrade

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 14 Aug 2020 by Justin Alexander and Rory Fyfe

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include:
● The UAE normalized relations with Israel, linking this to a suspension of annexation plans.
● Oil had a flat week as the IEA and OPEC both reduced their demand expectations.
● Aramco’s Q2 earnings showed just $6.1bn in free cash flow but it is sticking to its dividend.
● Kuwait will hold elections on 28 November and its pressing ahead with plans to cut expats.
● Oman secured a $2bn bridge loan until it issues a bond.
● Fitch downgraded Bahrain to B+ (Stable) on account of the crisis.
● Bahrain’s H1 fiscal outturn was grim as expected but does seem to show spending control.
● Lebanon’s government resigned and debt restructuring talks are on hold.

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