GULF WEEKLY: US strikes paused, Iran-Oman near Hormuz terms, UAE posts strong Q1 non-oil GDP

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 07 Aug 2026 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Trump called off a major weekend attack on Iran after intervention from MBS and other Gulf states.
* The depletion of US missiles and interceptors may also be a factor limiting US attack plans.
* Iran and Oman say they are close to an interim agreement on Hormuz. Brent has eased to $81.
* There were attacks on ships in Hormuz on Sat-Mon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on Tue-Wed.
* Adnoc abandoned its Murban crude benchmark amidst war volatility and its post-OPEC output plans.
* PMIs rose in UAE, Qatar (still in contraction) and Kuwait (returning to expansion); KSA’s eased, but remains robust.
* Aramco’s earnings showed a strong realized oil price in Q2 but also a doubling in fuel subsidies.
* Saudi Arabia signed a trilateral mutual defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan.
* UAE non-oil GDP grew by 4.8% y/y in Q1, twice the rate of Dubai, led by a 17% surge in finance.
* Dubai’s population recovered to above pre-war levels in June.
* Contractors working on Qatar’s North Field East LNG expansion reported progress despite the war.
* Kuwait’s FX reserves dipped for a fourth month and are down by -16% since March.
* Kuwait closed its $4.25bn three-year syndicated loan at SOFR+80bp.
* Fitch hiked its Oman fiscal surplus forecast to 4.3% of GDP, but sees twin deficits in 2027 on $65 oil.
* Alba’s Q2 profits surged 164% y/y on high prices, despite a -32% decline in sales volume.
* Databank updates: UAE GDP, Qatar inflation, Oman and GCC forecasts, PMIs.

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