Headline growth steady, but the devil was in the details

ISRAEL - In Brief 16 Aug 2023 by Jonathan Katz

GDP growth surprised on the upside, reaching 3% saar in Q223 (our forecast was 2.8%, Bloomberg survey: 2.3%). The devil was in the details. A closer look point to a decelerating economy. Industrial exports actually declined by 8.5% saar and high-tech service exports by 1.8%. Total exports declined by 2.6% while total imports declined sharply by 11.2%. This was a net contributor to GDP growth. Private consumption growth reached 1.9% following a decline of 1.4% in Q123. Investments in residential construction was up 2.2%, and non-residential investments declined by 0.3%. Government consumption increased by 3.6%. Q123 GDP growth was revised slightly downward to 2.9% from 3.2%. Growth is actually decelerating, with both private consumption weak and exports contracting, but a more rapid decline in imports (also an indicator of slowing growth going forward) contributed to GDP growth. Slowing growth will support rate stability in coming months.

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