Headline OK, Details Not…

TURKEY - Report 03 Mar 2014 by Murat Ucer
February CPI inflation came in at 0.4%, which meant a very slight increase in the 12-month rate to just below 8% from 7.8% a month earlier (Table 1; Graph 1). This is broadly in line with expectations and slightly lower than ours. But the underlying details are rather worrying. First, we had this relatively benign print thanks to food inflation turning out a lot lower than the seasonal averages, as well as what we had factored into our own forecast. Had food inflation been more in line with seasonal averages (typically over 2%), we could see headline CPI inflation come in as high as 1%. Sec...

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