​Health Minister promises quick end to corona battle

TURKEY - In Brief 15 Apr 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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In his Tuesday evening briefing, Health Minister Mr. Fahrettin Koca took pride in Turkey’s super-efficient health system which keeps the mortality and intubation ratios from COVID-19 low and has a nation-wide contact tracing network which leaves no stone unturned. “Therefore”, he said “in one to two weeks we may see the peak of the epidemic”.I have a host of reasons to think he is being overly optimistic. As important as the health implications of the declaration of a premature victory, I conjecture economic plans are being made for a swift return to economic normalcy, which will increase the medium term damage. It is indeed true that in the last three reporting days new cases in Turkey declined visibly from 5K band per day to 4K band, amidst a much smaller fluctuation in daily test numbers averaging ca 34K. I don’t wish to argue about the rest of the points made by MoH, because they are not salient to our analysis and what the audience needs to know:When can we return to normalcy? The first reason for my skepticism about MoH promises is visual evidence from Hurriyet and SOZCU newspapers, at the opposite end of the political spectrum, about a sudden bump in social activity pursuant the hastily declared curfew for 11-12 April. Apple, like Google began releasing social mobility data collected through its smart phones, which reveal a three-fold increase around the same time span. Secondly, almost all health experts are in agreement that the mad rush to procure necessities before the sudden curfew has caused a new wave of infections, for which the incubation period will only end in the last days of April. Only after seeing the magnitude of this bump, will it be possible to...