​Hectic political agenda warrants a mid-week Brief

TURKEY - In Brief 14 Oct 2021 by Atilla Yesilada

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I intended to pen this Market Brief yesterday,focusing on Erdogan’s hint at a new military campaign in Tel Rifat (Map below) and the rising chorus of opposition leaders taking claims of political assassinations seriously. Within 24 hours, a major scandal broke out concerning TUGVA, an educational charity led by Bilal Erdogan, the son of President Erdogan. Then, in yet another mid-night executive order, Erdogan reshuffled top echelons of CBRT, but left Prof Kavcioglu in his post as chairman. In this Brief, I want to express my views about consequences rather than events, which ought to be familiar to most of our readership. The overhaul in CBRT has several reasons, according to Turkish press. The sacked names may have been against further rate cuts, alleged to have affiliations with Gulenists, or removed because of being an accessory to Albayrak era’s futile attempt by CBRT to sell FX reserves to defend the TL. Though it is early morning in Turkey, experts have already commented on the incident, with a majority thinking that the reshuffle is a strong signal of rate cuts to come.As a result, my time-delayed screen shows dollar/TL at 9.18-19. A few experts predict CBRT and state banks initiating FX intervention during the day. By the way, these are Atilla Yesilada’s personal views, with which our economist Dr. Ucer may or may not agree. Regarding Erdogan’s threats of yet another Syrian military campaign, the odds of materialization is very slim. Firstly, the event which triggered Erdogan’s fury, namely the martyring of two police officers, is not necessarily the doing of PKK-affiliated Syrian Kurdish entity, PYD/YPG, but Russian hitmen, because the area where murders took...