High Uncertainty Before the Elections

ECUADOR - In Brief 02 Feb 2021 by Magdalena Barreiro
Elections for the first round of the Ecuadorian presidential elections will take place next Sunday, February 7th. Information from polls were available until January 28th, and the uncertainty remains due to diverse results from different pollsters. There are 11 pollsters approved by the National Electoral Council and the average of vote intention by January 28th place Andres Arauz in the first place with 36.9%, Guillermo Lasso is in the second place with an average of 24.9% followed by Yaku Perez with 15.6%. All other candidates sum 22.6% and undecided votes together with blank and null votes are still quite high at around 15%. Chart 1 below was presented by Ecuavisa --one of the two independent TV networks. However, Chart 2 presents results from Market Research and contradicts data in Chart 1. What all agree upon is neither Arauz nor Lasso have enough votes to win in one round, and thus, they will run on the second round.Minister Pozo did not send COMYF to the assembly by the end of January as expected, and most probably this bill will be sent next week. This is an economically urgent project so the Assembly has 30 days to vote. Therefore the decision could be made before the second electoral round that would take place on April 11th. We believe it is highly unlikely its approval will fall under the responsibility of the new Assembly that takes office mid May.Source: Ecuavisa TVChart 2Source: Market Research

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