Hong Kong protests and the economy

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 15 Aug 2019 by Andrew Collier

Some analysts are treating the Hong Kong protests as an exercise in democracy. Others say the demonstrators are restricting themselves to five more limited goals, the main one being the formal withdrawal of the extradition treaty. I tend to be an economic determinist and believe that the rising inequality in income and unaffordability of property has shattered the “tacit bargain” with the mainland – that China will guarantee a good lifestyle and Hong Kong will adhere to political restrictions. China has neither delivered on economic gains for the average person nor retained key freedoms.

Whether Beijing views the protests as a request for democracy, a demand to resolve a set of narrow demands, or a concern about economic issues will influence the PRC’s attitude toward resolving the dispute, and toward global issues more broadly.

In this report we discuss

* The data on inequality,
* China’s “secret” response to the protests, and
* Thoughts on the next steps.

Now read on...

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