How Far Does Moreno Want To Go?
The ongoing animosity between President Lenin Moreno and former president Correa and the evident lack of support of a majority of legislators still loyal to Correa is a direct threat to the stability and success of this government.
However, it has also opened an interest opportunity for Moreno to help Ecuadorians recover democracy and independence of power and to raise his popularity to a soaring 80%. His attitude towards dialogue and social respect and his promise to carry out a referendum to “remove authoritarianism from Ecuador’s political system, and above all by restoring independence between the functions of government” has been well received by a majority of Ecuadorians from many sectors of society who cheer the initiative.
The referendum has to be approved by the constitutional court –not an easy journey considered the strong influence of Correa over its members. But the recent scandals of corruption together with the evidence of wasted money on failed projects like the Refinery of the Pacific, the refinery in Esmeraldas, and the Yachay University have outraged people and have put Alianza Pais and their allies in a non-comfort zone that might ease the presidential approval of the referendum –if Moreno is serious about carrying it out.
The presence of members of the most extreme “Correismo” in the government cast doubts on what exactly Moreno wants to do, and how serious he is in going against his own party and his former friend. In the meantime, Ecuadorians expect anxiously what looks at “Ecuador’s fastest way forward out of the authoritarian labyrinth Correa, sometimes called “the Minotaur” by critics, left behind” --as Analytica puts it.
The political and corruption scandals have distracted the attention from the economic situation that deserves careful monitoring at the time. Although the deficit will end up lower from our estimation at the beginning of the year at $5.8 billion or 6% of GDP, it still poses a lot of pressure on financing needs and reduces degrees of freedom for the fiscal sector to navigate a still difficult 2018. The budget for next year will be submitted to Congress by the end of October, and only then we will be able to see if the promises of austerity from President Moreno have been implemented.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report