How Might A China Slowdown Affect The World?

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 11 Sep 2014 by Michael Pettis

Executive Summary

Recent statements by Li Keqiang, China’s Premier, suggest that lower GDP growth will not cause Beijing the kind of anxiety it has in the past, and that the leadership is willing to tolerate it as long as they believe unemployment is manageable. The market seems to be interpreting these comments as recognition that growth rates will drop further this year.

As China’s economy continues to slow, analysts both in China and abroad have been lowering their GDP growth forecasts at an almost predictable pace. A “hard...

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