Politics: How the presidential recall public consultation is likely to wind up
An April 10 vote on whether to recall or reconfirm López Obrador as president marks only the second time the voters in Mexico have successfully petitioned the electoral authority (INE) to hold a public consultation, a mechanism of direct democracy approved under a constitutional reform in November 2019. The political objectives and implications of the recall vote are the source of such intense debate as to transform it into yet another highly polarizing issue. The key number determining which way the pro and anti-AMLO camps will shape their post-referendum narratives will hinge not on the percentage of those voting for or against recalling the president—there can be little doubt that more than 80% of those who bother to show up will vote in favor of him serving out his term of office—but on the overall rate of participation.
It is hard to anticipate just how many people are likely to turn out for the consultation, especially since the only previous experience with this mechanism was a much more subdued effort. But there is little reason to expect massive turnout given that the only people promoting it are from the Morena camp, while all opposition parties are calling for a boycott. The INE scheduled the vote for the beginning of Mexico’s main holiday travel period (Holy Week), with scant few holiday makers likely to spend time trying to locate one of the very few polling stations planned for travel destinations. And with INE planning to open only about a third of the usual number of polling locations, most of those who intend to vote will have to look for unfamiliar and more distant places to cast a ballot. Furthermore, even in the intensely fought 2021 midterms, Morena was able to bring out no more than 20% of registered voters or 18 million persons, and perhaps more tellingly, its supporters were able to reach only nine million to sign petitions to authorize the consultation, an activity that involves a lot less effort for people than voting.
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