How They Stand Ahead of Debate

MEXICO - In Brief 22 Apr 2018 by Esteban Manteca

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To date, the most significant take-away from opinion polls is that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), presidential candidate of the coalition Together We Will Make History, is the frontrunner. While the polls differ significantly on how much of a lead AMLO enjoys (8 to 23 percentage points) over his closest rival, Ricardo Anaya, they broadly concur that José Antonio Meade is running third. They also offer very different readings of how many points separate the latter two candidates and the extent of support for Margarita Zavala. Discussion has centered on the size of López Obrador's level of support and whether it is irreversible at this point. AMLO’s supporters argue he commands such a huge lead nothing between now and Election Day could rob him of victory. Such a scenario is not improbable, but neither is it chiseled in stone. In previous presidential election races, double-digit shifts have been registered in just one month of the campaign. Evidence suggests that election campaigns can change voter preferences. The question is whether such changes will be on the scale and in the direction necessary to modify the current rankings of the three major presidential contenders. Indeed, in 2006, shifts in voter preferences reversed the standings of the top two contenders (López Obrador-Calderón). In 2012, only the second and third place positions (Vázquez Mota-AMLO) were exchanged, and the percentage point distance between the first and second place candidates was reduced (Peña-AMLO), but the frontrunner maintained his lead and won. In the first 19 days of the campaign, the candidates have visited the following states: TABLE 1 States in which major candidates made campaig...