IMF − the star of Year 2020
Official information for the deficits of the Central Government and the Non-Financial Public Sector shows that the Republic has complied with the quantitative goals set by the IMF program for 2020. In fact, the cumulative change in the deficit between January-June and January-September for the Central Government was set at $2894 million, and the actual change was $1177 million. The goal for the NFPS was also surpassed: the goal for the cumulative change in the deficit between the above-mentioned periods was $2706 million, and the actual difference was $1332 million.
The overall balance for the NFPS as of November 2020 amounts to $3000 million – well below the IMF estimate of $8,276 million for this year. Even though December is historically a month with higher capital expenditures and higher salaries, it is improbable that the deficit will grow $5.2b in one month.
Minister Mauricio Pozo announced a deficit of $7.3 billion for the General Government, which is $1.2b lower than the official estimate as of September. This estimate is more in line with our previous estimates of a deficit between $6.5b and $7b.
Between January and November, the government received $5,231 million of external disbursements and $4,966 million of domestic disbursements to finance needs of $12,920 million, completing the gap in arrears of $1741 million for this year, plus another $1086 million from other liabilities. The deficit for this level of the government as of November is $4194 million, with total revenues of $13.9b (down $4.3b from the same period in 2019) and total expenditures of $18,108 million (down $2,055 million from the same period last year).
The electoral panorama has been complicated by the demands from Alvaro Noboa to be registered as an official candidate in the upcoming elections. The Electoral Court ruled in his favor, but the Electoral Council has not accepted his registration. If in the end, he is approved to run, this might endanger the already established dates for the first round of the elections. Noboa is a populist from the right wing of the political spectrum, and his candidacy could hurt both Arauz and Lasso.
Guillermo Lasso continues to lead in voters' intentions with an average among polls of 23.57%, followed by Andres Arauz with an average of 19.7%, which shows a narrower gap than the one apparently existing back in October. Even though Yacu Perez, with an average of 10.7%, also has lower numbers than in October, he continues to be the third electoral force. Only two other candidates exceed an average of 1%, and they are Isidro Romero, with 2.08%, and Cesar Montufar, with 2.62%. Romero is a populist with no political background, while Montufar, who is now in alliance with the Socialist Party, has been in politics for decades.
This is our final report for 2020, and we want to take the opportunity to wish Happy Holidays to all of our clients.
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