Politics: In 2022 AMLO looks to consolidate his 4T and ensure it endures beyond 2024

MEXICO - Report 10 Jan 2022 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

With the 2024 elections just two years away, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is increasingly focused on ensuring his legacy through consolidating his Fourth Transformation (4T) project. The next battle is over the presidential recall referendum, pushed not by voters discontented with AMLO’s performance, but by Lopez Obrador himself and his supporters. They want to use the exercise as a way of shoring up and mobilizing the President’s support. This has been combined with an attack on the National Electoral Institute (INE), which says it cannot organize the recall vote without additional funding. AMLO is using the issue as part of an ongoing campaign to discredit the INE, with a view toward controlling the electoral authority and chipping away at its autonomy and impartiality.

But to change the nature of the INE, as well as to guarantee other changes to the Constitution necessary to codify the 4T – especially concerning energy policy and the electricity industry – the votes of Morena legislators alone fall short in guaranteeing the required qualified majority. Therefore, AMLO needs the support of opposition lawmakers, specifically from the PRI. What concessions the President will make to obtain support at least from a wing of the PRI is an open question, but one with major implications for 2024.

For now, the political reform, which in addition to undermining the INE could include changes to the rules governing state financing for political parties, the number of proportional representation seats or their very existence, and eliminating the ban on the President or governors participating in election campaigns, will be crucial for the future of democracy in Mexico. It will also be the most important political battle of the current presidential administration.

All this dovetails with AMLO’s twin priorities: to extend and solidify his policies and emblematic work projects and create the conditions to ensure a Morena victory in 2024, thereby guaranteeing the continuation of the 4T.

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