After Trump's tariffs

INDONESIA - Report 30 Apr 2025 by Cyrillus Harinowo

The world was shaken by the tariffs imposed by US President Trump. While they may take time to be fully implemented (if they are fully implemented) the news has hit exporters around the world, with the export performance of each country under close review to see how big the impact of these tariffs will be.

Therefore, we felt relieved when we saw the export data from March 2025, which was released in mid-April. Apparently the effect of the Trump tariffs was still barely seen in this data because the implementation of that policy is taking some time. At the same time many countries, including Indonesia, are negotiating with US trade representatives on how to lower the tariffs imposed on their countries.

According to the trade balance data released by the Central Board of Statistics, exports in March reached $23,249.2 million, above those of the previous month, which were $21,944.2 million. Meanwhile, imports were $18,920.1 million, for a trade balance in March of $4,329.1 million, above the February surplus of $3,095.2 million. Cumulative exports from January to March reached $66.621.6, million while cumulative imports reached $55,705.0 million. Therefore, the total trade surplus for the first quarter of 2025 reached $10,916.6 million.

A review of the bilateral trade data between the US and Indonesia shows that exports to the US in March 2025 were higher than in the previous month, at $2,629.0 million, from $2,345.7 million in February. At the same time its imports were reported at $646.1 million, which also showed an increase, of 0.35% from the previous month. This trade surplus has been reviewed closely by the US trade representatives.

The Central Board of Statistics also reported that the Consumer Price Index for the month of March registered inflation of 1.65%. With that monthly inflation, Y/Y inflation increased significantly, reaching 1.03%. However, that level of y/y inflation rate was still in the lower part of the inflation corridor administered by the Central Bank. Against that background, Bank Indonesia kept the benchmark rate constant at 5.75% at its policy meeting of April 22-23, 2025.

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