Better than expectation
Economists had forecast a slower expansion for Q3 2026, with the rate of growth of Indonesia's economy at 5.2% Y/Y. However, the result came in beyond expectations, at 5.47%. The growth spike was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, which expanded by 5.87%. This growth rate was very much in line with the Standard & Poor's Purchasing Managers' Index, which stood at 52.4% in September 2026 and 54% in October. The strong growth in the manufacturing sector was supported by a sharp increase in raw materials imports, which grew by 24.65% Y/Y. The overall Q3 rate of growth was slightly above the growth rate for Q2 2026 of 5.29%. Growth for the first three quarters of the year was 5.45%.
The Central Board of Statistics released the trade balance data for September 2026. Exports increased 3.68% and reached $27,591.5 million, with non-oil exports of $26,639.8 million. Imports also increased, by 5.09% to $24,234.9 million, with non-oil imports of $20,966.2 million. Even though both exports and imports increased, the overall trade surplus actually fell slightly. In August it was $3,552.2 million, while in September it fell by $195.6 million or by 5.51%, to reach $3,356.6 million.
The Central Board of Statistics also released the inflation report. October 2026 inflation was 0.22%, bringing Y/Y inflation to 3.23%. The Central Bank of Indonesia decided to keep its bench mark interest rate constant at 5.75% at its meeting in October.
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