A rise in the political temperature
Indonesia has entered a period of rising political temperature in the run-up to the general elections. The registration for candidates for president and vice president began on October 19, 2023; the first two pairs, Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, and Ganjar Pranowo and Machfud MD, registered almost at the same time that day. On the other hand, the third pair registered on the last day of the period, October 25, 2023.
The nomination of the first two pairs was as predicted. However, for the third pair, the nomination for vice president was dramatic, because the candidate is still 36 years old, below the former threshold age for the position. In this case, the threshold age was finally changed constitutionally by the Constitutional Court in order to allow a candidate below 40 years old to be nominated as long as that candidate has governmental experience. The new rule allows Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of the President Joko Widodo, to be nominated as the candidate for vice president of Prabowo Subiyanto.
Based on the polls, the contest for the presidency is expected to be tight. The presidential election will take place on February 14, 2024, preceded by a campaign period. However, there have been massive campaigns on social media prior to the formal election campaign period. So far, the situation on the ground is still quite calm and peaceful even though the tensions in social media have been rising.
In the meantime, Central Board of Statistics released its report on the trade balance for the month of September 2023, which registered another large surplus, even slightly larger than the previous month. The surplus in September 2023 was $3,417.8 million compared to the $3,118.2 million achieved in August 2023. The total trade surplus for the first nine months of 2023 stands at $27,753.2 million, 30.4% lower than $39,849.6 million achieved in the same period of the previous year.
Exports in September reached $20,759.3 million while imports were $17,341.5 million. Cumulative exports from January to September 2023 reached $192,272.8 million while cumulative imports for the same period were $164,519.6 million
The Central Board of Statistics also reported the Consumer Price Index for September, which resulted in inflation of 0.19%. With that monthly inflation, year-over-year inflation in September reached 2.28%, a level in the lower part of the inflation corridor targeted by the Central Bank. However, the sanguine inflation performance was, unfortunately, not accompanied by rupiah stability, as the currency was under pressure due to the rise in external interest rates. To prevent a further slide in the exchange rate, Bank Indonesia raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.00% at its the policy meeting held on October 18-19, 2023.
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