Industrial output up by 5.2% y-o-y in 11M21

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 22 Dec 2021 by Alexander Kudrin

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Rosstat reported that industrial output increased y-o-y by 5.3% and 5.2% in November and 11M21. As regularly happened in 2020 and 2021, statistics for the preceding month were revised up. This revision was quite significant as, for instance, previously reported y-o-y October growth in manufacturing was revised from 2.9% y-o-y to 3.3% y-o-y. Growth in October in the mining was also revised up. It now looks as though in 2021 as a whole industrial growth will exceed 5%. However, the exact figure will be largely determined by the December data and by the forthcoming revision of the just-published November data. The issue will be particularly important in December 2021 as in December 2020, industrial output grew by the extraordinary 19.2% m-o-m (not adjusted to seasonal and calendar factors). Usually, seasonally unadjusted December m-o-m growth in manufacturing never exceeded 13% m-o-m, and more often it remained single-digit rather than staying at low double-digit levels. It looks as though all unaccounted in 2020 activities in manufacturing were recorded in December data.So far, in 11M21 y-o-y growth was recorded almost all across major segments of manufacturing. However, some important sub-sectors, such as car production, and some other kinds of machinery, saw a y-o-y decline in production.Therefore, there is some degree of uncertainty about not the 2021 industrial growth alone, but the 2022 forecast as well. Mining, which grew by 4.3% in 11M21 and at a double-digit rate in October and November amid strong base effects, such as an OPEC+ deal, will deliver much stronger results in 2022. However, growth in manufacturing is likely to decelerate, but a lot will depend on how...