Industrial Production: Positive Result, But Not a Clear Recovery Trend

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 04 Dec 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
Industrial output has been extremely volatile for several months, so much so that it even appears in the 12-month rates, which by construction should behave more smoothly (Graph 1). For this reason, the short-term numbers only provide imprecise information on the trend. The data in Graph 1 show a slight growing tendency since the middle of 2012, but with sharp monthly fluctuations around the trend. Graph 1 Industrial Production Against this backdrop, which urges caution about interpretation, production has increased for the past three months. The last time this occurred was between June and...

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