Industrial production shrinks, economic statistics remain puzzling

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 26 Mar 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Industrial production shrinks, economic statistics remain puzzlingRosstat reported that in 2M26, industrial production fell by 0.8% y-o-y. However, the chart, presented by Rosstat just below this announcement, shows a clear y-o-y growth of about 4% at least. Indeed, y-o-y industrial growth numbers based on the officially published m-o-m statistics would give us about 4.2% y-o-y growth. In the footnote below the chart the agency mentioned that 2026 statistical numbers for industrial production are now based on fixed 2023 prices, while data for the previous period were based on 2018 fixed prices. The mismatch between the y-o-y and m-o-m time series clearly indicates that sectoral weights within industrial production differ significantly depending on the base year chosen. What was the reason for Rosstat to present such a peculiar combination of two different base years for these time series (such as industry in total, the mining, the manufacturing segments, and a couple of others), is unclear. Why the agency decided not to reappraise industrial statistics applying 2023 fixed prices for previous years is also a mystery. As we have no answer to these questions we have to leave them without further comments, especially because GDP statistics is currently based on 2021 fixed prices, with different sectoral weights. Hopefully, at some point, Rosstat will publish internally consistent time series. One cannot rule out that growth rates for previous years will be once again revised. For the time being, neither short-term nor medium-term growth trajectories cannot be taken as granted.Meanwhile, production statistics for a relatively wide range of goods in physical terms didn’t loo...