Economics: Inflation in March 2026 rose again due to an increase in non-core inflation and the persistence of core inflation

MEXICO - Report 14 Apr 2026 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

Consumer inflation in March stood at 4.59% annually, up from 4.02% in February. The increase was driven primarily by a sharp rise in the non-core component, which reached 5.05%.
As a result, consumer inflation has risen by nearly one percentage point (100 basis points) during the first quarter of 2026.
The high non-core inflation was mainly due to a 21.8% increase in fruit and vegetable prices and a 6.1% rise in government tariffs.
The core component has remained above 4% annually for the past nine months, contradicting Banxico’s view that this situation would be temporary.
The Bank of Mexico has faced criticism for cutting interest rates under these circumstances, especially as inflation is expected to remain elevated due to higher energy costs, tariffs on Asian products, and increases in indirect taxes (IEPS).
Regarding this week’s indicators, industrial production contracted by 1.3% YoY in February 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis. For the year to date, industrial activity has declined by 0.7%.
Additionally, gross fixed investment (GFI) fell 2.2% YoY in January 2026, marking 17 consecutive monthly declines.
Meanwhile, private consumption grew 2.7% YoY on a seasonally adjusted basis in January. The increase was driven entirely by spending on imported goods, while consumption of domestically produced goods and services remained stagnant during the month.

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