Inflation jumps in November, but this is just a beginning

TURKEY - Report 03 Dec 2021 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 3.5%, m/m, in November, higher than the consensus of around 3%, with the 12-month rate increasing further to 21.3% from 19.9% in October. Producer prices rose by a whopping –though not so surprising (given the direct effects of currency weakness and higher energy prices in the index) -- 10% in the month, raising the 12-month rate to a new historic high of 54.6%, up from 46.3% in the previous month. Quite notably, the PPI-CPI gap increased to a record 33 percentage points in the month, some of which will be inevitably passed on to December CPI inflation and beyond (Graph 1; Table 1).

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