Inflation y-o-y to stabilize, disinflation expected from March

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 03 Feb 2021 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat reported that during the last week of January, the w-o-w inflation was at zero, and as of February 1, inflation YTD reached 0.7%. It is not yet the official number for January as monthly inflation numbers assume a broader consumption basket than preliminary estimates of weekly inflation. However, it looks as though the officially monthly inflation will not differ much from the initial number. It seems that the impact of the federal budget spending spree orchestrated by the Finance Ministry in November-December 2020 is generally over, and the inflation will return to its more traditional trajectory from February. Inflation y-o-y in January and February is likely to be close to 5.4%, which above the CBR inflation target. Inflation y-o-y will start coming down from March, but it will still be above the CBR target. Hence no action from the CBR is required yet.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

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