Interesting Times, Dull Forecasts

TURKEY - Forecast 20 Oct 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive SummaryAs we approach the end of another year of “rebalancing”, like in 2012, the absence of a secular narrative and the sense of “stuckness” in Turkey’s macro outlook are becoming all the more apparent. We think this has been vividly illustrated by the government’s recently released Medium Term Program, which has revised growth down, inflation up for both 2014-15, finally aligning them closer with the consensus view. For this year, the government now expects growth at around 3.3%, yearend inflation at 9.4% and the current account deficit/GDP ratio, though much lower than last yea...

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