Interpreting China’s economic results for 2021

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 21 Jan 2022 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this issue:

* China’s reported GDP growth for 2021 of 8.1 percent was better than expected, mainly because of a very poor fourth quarter that came in nonetheless well above expectations.

* There are enough questions about the data, however, that we will be debating this for a while. I fully expect that in December of this year the NBS will announce a downward revision of the last year’s GDP data – as they did in December 2021 and previously in December 2020.

* China’s economic policymakers have reacted to the data as if they were worried about the pace of the slowdown. Already we have seen easing measures by the PBoC.

Now read on...

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