IPCA: End of a Benign Period

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 09 Oct 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
In September the IPCA rose 0.35%, greater than the increase of the IPCA-15 for that month (0.27%). With this, inflation over the preceding 12 months accumulated a variation of 5.86% (Graph 1). The IPCA for September should mark the end of a cycle of about four months of relatively benign monthly variations. In this period, a combination of favorable seasonal factors, such as declines in the prices of several staple food items and the roll-back of urban bus fare hikes, moderated inflation. Now we are entering a period of less favorable seasonal factors, and the impact of the weaker exchange ...

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