Is high popularity a buffer against social unrest?

ECUADOR - Report 19 Aug 2021 by Magdalena Barreiro

Approximately 80% of Ecuadorians approve of President Lasso’s government in the first 90 days of his administration, and his popularity increased slightly between June and August 6, from 71.4% to 73.5%, according to CEDATOS. Also, his credibility is up from 61.7% to 63.2% in this period. But while Lasso’s popularity is increasing, the Assembly is falling rapidly into further discredit as the credibility of legislators is down from an already low 23.5% in June to 20.9% in August.

The vaccination campaign has been very successful so far, coming closer to the campaign promise of vaccinating nine million Ecuadorians in the first 100 days of the administration. In fact, 9.9 million Ecuadorians were vaccinated with one dose as of July 8, and 4.8 million have received both doses. This is why this program has the highest level of public approval (96%).

Also, optimism has increased from April, when only 19% of Ecuadorians thought the future could be better, to August, when 56.7% are confident the country will see better days.

However, these past weeks have not been easy for the government as social peace has been disrupted by several protests, albeit without the violence of the riots of October 2019. On the coastal region, rice and banana producers have closed roads demanding higher prices for their products, which are set by the government and not the market. They claim production costs are exceeding prices and are pushing them to the edge of bankruptcy.

In the Andean Region, Leonidas Iza, the newly elected president of CONAIE, tried to prove his questioned leadership by organizing a march to demand the permanence of subsidies for derivatives. President Lasso has affirmed he will not eliminate the executive decrees that set the new formula to take those prices toward market prices.

The government is working on focusing the diesel subsidy for the transportation sector, but has taken too long, leaving space for CONAIE to gain street leadership again. Unions joined Iza’s protest, marching against a labor reform that albeit announced, is not yet known. And teachers accompanied them, demanding the promulgation of the Intercultural Education bill that would increase current fiscal expenditures by $3b if made effective.

Last week, the Constitutional Court finally submitted its ruling on the above-mentioned Intercultural Law, recognizing its several unconstitutional aspects, which could delay its application for at least six months. However, it does not eliminate this possibility for now. The Court mandated the current Assembly to find the fiscal resources to finance the bill, one of its many problems, before making it effective. However, this request exceeds the scope of the Assembly, which already expressed its support of the law. Thus, it seems the Executive’s intervention will, one way or the other, decide the outcome of the law, raising the possibility of further social unrest.

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