Is it game over? (4)

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 02 May 2022 by Romeo Bernardo

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But for the casting of votes on Monday, May 9, the presidential and vice-presidential elections appear to be over. PulseAsia today released its survey of voter preferences conducted from April 16-21. The results were largely unchanged compared with last month. In the race for the presidency, Mr. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. still enjoyed majority support (56%) with VP Leni Robredo still lagging with a 23% share, notwithstanding the impressive crowds in her campaign rallies. Similarly in the vice-presidential race, Mr. Marcos’s running mate, Presidential daughter and Davao Mayor Sara Duterte had a 55% voter share compared with the 18% share of the second placer, Senate president Vicente Sotto. While we see no recent evidence of financial markets being apprehensive about a Marcos victory by way of wide swings in price and flows, it is not clear that this has not already been fully priced in as a Marcos 2.0 has been looming for months now. At this time, we see the following risks: To date, Mr. Marcos has yet to present a coherent economic program.His refusal to participate in debates, notwithstanding one-on-one challenges from other contenders, has left observers guessing whether it is safe to bet on policy continuity under the new administration.On the other hand, there are those who believe that it will be business as usual under Marcos 2.0 and are thus, not expecting drastic changes.A high majority win for Mr. Marcos may embolden him to pursue the fiscally unsound policies he mentioned in interviews, e.g., price stabilization measures in rice and oil trade.Some believe that Mr. Marcos could garner even more than his current 56% voter share based on: (a) local governments, fea...