​Is the EU sanctions threat over?

TURKEY - In Brief 23 Sep 2020 by Atilla Yesilada

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EU’s extraordinary leaders’ summit scheduled for this weekend was postponed for a week on account of Council President Charles Michel being in COVID-19 quarantine, which gives Turkey, EU and the anti-Turkey hardliners to work out a compromise in the interim. Despite press reports to the contrary, I still expect mild sanctions to persuade the Greek Axis (Greece and Greek Cypriote Administration) to lift its veto on sanctions to Belarus. I write this market update for two additional reasons. First, the down-shift from bellicose rhetoric and military posturing to dialogue speaks tons about President Erdogan’s modus operandi. The second point is that neither the Cyprus-cum-East Med dispute, nor the sanctions threats on Turkey are over. According to Reuters, “Mediation led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Council President Charles Michel has calmed Greek and Turkish tempers after weeks of tension in the eastern Mediterranean, securing an agreement on Tuesday to restart talks on continental shelf boundaries that broke off in 2016. "Dialogue has reduced the need to threaten sanctions on Turkey and so there's no consensus among the 27 for such a step right now," said one EU diplomat”. Yet, the Greek Axis is persistent: "I'm afraid that, as things stand right now, we will have to insist on Belarus. It's the only weapon that we have," a Cypriot diplomat told Reuters, saying that the EU had not left Cyprus with a diplomatic way out of the impasse”.(link to both quotes here) There are unconfirmed reports of France and official reports of Austria seeking sanctions against Turkey, too. I conjecture EU cares deeply about stopping Lukashenko in Belarus, and thus get eve...