01 Sep 2013
by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive SummaryOur base-case fall/winter scenario on the political side entails very daunting challenges for the AKP administration, which may reverse its more than a decade old streak of good luck. Assuming President Obama does strike Syrian targets but fails to dislodge Assad, the Shia Axis could turn on Ankara. In any case, Assad provoking unrest and terror before March 2014 local elections is a possibility.In general, the trends in the Middle East no longer favor Turkish political stability. The war inside the war in Syria between Kurds and Arab radicals could end up in Kurdish autono...
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