Israel election update: coalition formation looks increasingly complicated

ISRAEL - In Brief 24 Mar 2021 by Jonathan Katz

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With 90% of the votes counted, the balance of mandates has shifted dramatically. The Netanyahu led block currently has only 52 mandates. If Benett (Yamina) and his 7 seats join this coalition, Netanyahu will still be short of the necessary 61 majority. Netanyahu must bring in one of the Arab parties, and only one party out of the two (Ra’am with 5 seats) is currently willing to consider this if their demands are met regarded fiscal support for Arab towns, fighting crime in Arab towns and developing Arab settlements. Netanyahu already tried to warm up Arab voters before the elections. The anti-Netanyahu block (with 56 seats) will also try to persuade Ra’am to join them. This will be very complicated on both sides, as the very right-wing parties are not willing to form a coalition which depends on the Arab parties. Nevertheless, it appears that without the involvement of the Arab parties in the next coalition, either actively or more likely from outside the government, both sides will find it very difficult to reach a 61 vote majority. In short, coalition formation will be a complicated matter and the chances of a 5th round of elections (following 4 in two years) is increasingly likely. We note that final election count will be announced on Friday morning and we could see further adjustments in seats. The votes of soldiers have yet to be counted (usually vote for right wing parties) as well as the elderly and hospitalized. At present, it appears unlikely to expect a quick process in formation of a stable coalition.