Istanbul rerun is much more likely now

TURKEY - Report 05 May 2019 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Despite a near-consensus local view on High Election Council (HEC) ruling to annul Istanbul elections, we steadfastly stood by our scenario of President Erdogan conceding it to mayor-elect Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu (CHP), primarily in the absence of his personal involvement in the bitter media battle between rival camps. But this weekend, we were suddenly forced to reverse our base-case scenario, as Erdogan declared the result illegitimate on Saturday, calling upon the HEC to dispel the shadow cast upon its impartiality by ordering a repeat election.

Now, we conjecture that with 75% probability, the HEC will oblige him later in the week, with a potential election date set for mid- or late-June. Below, we explain the 25% margin of doubt, and express our thoughts on the political, economic and market repercussions of a potential rerun of Istanbul election.

Meanwhile, given the fluidity of the situation, we’ve decided to hold off the publication of our Quarterly today, until we get some more clarity on the HEC decision, which, of course, is rather consequential for the shape of things to come.

Now read on...

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